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Sign inDESI DR2 BAO combined with the CMB prefers CDM over ΛCDM at 3.1σ, and at 2.8σ (Pantheon+), 3.8σ (Union3) and 4.2σ (DES-SN5YR) when supernovae are added, with , (a thawing-like evolution). Confirmed, this would rule out a cosmological constant as the source of acceleration. The significance depends on the supernova calibration and on the parametrisation.
Recalibrated supernova samples keep a frequentist preference of about 3.1–3.4σ (DES-Dovekie 3.2σ, Union3.1 3.4σ, 'Unite' 3.1–3.3σ), while Bayesian analyses find weak or no evidence (Ong et al.). DESI DR3, Euclid DR1 cosmology and Rubin results are not yet available.
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DES-Dovekie lowers the DES combination from 4.2σ to 3.2σ (about 5:1 odds) and Union3.1 gives 3.4σ; the preference is reduced but not removed.
Nested sampling gives (mildly favouring ΛCDM) for DESI DR2 + Planck; the evidence with DES-SN5YR traces to a DESI–DES tension and vanishes with DES-Dovekie.
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Test with DESI DR3, the DESI DR2 Lyman-α full-shape analysis and Euclid DR1 (mid-2027) whether the preferred region persists without the current supernova samples.